Phil Alexander: Beware of drafting running backs based solely on their perceived opportunity. Detroit signed Jamaal Williams to take the heavy work and kicked the tires on Todd Gurley before declining his addition. Nick Chubb, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB10 | Consensus Projections RB12. This is more important for Barkley than most backs because he relies on his immense gifts more than most backs. I feel like most drafting Gordon right now are doing it on name value, but he now has plenty of competition with Javonte Williams and Mike Boone as priority adds this offseason. Ben Cummins: Henrys past two monster years were with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the head coach in Atlanta. The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders as an every-down back. Daniel Jones was one of the most uninspiring quarterbacks in the league last year. Has no highlight reel. As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league over that finishing stretch to put up those huge numbers. More of the stats of an average RB, which Laurence Maroney and Rashard Mendenhall are. He's playing for his fifth team in seven seasons and has never been an instinctive runner. "Footballguys is the best premiumfantasy football 1 cornerstone. Theyre going to be one of the worst teams in NFL History. Victoria Geary: The Ravens have "made it a point of emphasis" to get Dobbins more looks in the passing game for 2021, but we know coach speak isn't very trustworthy during the offseason. The Top Ten. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. Now we can extinguish any hopes of Jacobs getting more involved in the passing game. Jerome Bettis 16. Although the rookie saw an uptick in usage throughout his first season, he managed to eclipse 66% of his teams snaps just once. The team likes fourth-round pick Zamir White and passing down back Ameer Abdullah, and Kenyan Drake is still on the roster, so Jacobs is going to have trouble being consistent enough to merit an every-week RB2 start. Davis has changed teams five times in the last three seasons. During the next few weeks, we here at NFL.com will unveil our Most Underrated and Overrated Players of All Time for all 32 teams and allow users to determine their choices as well.. His career YPC was 3.9. Gordon's arrow is pointing down for 2021, and he could be marginalized as the season goes on because the team also likes free agent signing Mike Boone. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings RB18 | Consensus Projections RB19. Jason Wood: We all want Dobbins to be an every-down workhorse. Kevin Coleman: Antonio Gibsons value took a hit this offseason. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB30 | Consensus Projections RB27. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB26 | Consensus Projections RB26. But, man, there are all sorts of asterisks to add to that description. Jim Brown 2. Adrian . D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB14. Ryan Hester: This isnt a knock on Harris, whose athletic profile and projected workload are things fantasy players dream of. In college, he played wide receiver as much as (if not more than) running back. Chad Parsons: As much as Taylor is an overt talent and a potentially elite RB1 in a best-case scenario. The final reason why Jerome Bettis is the most overrated RB of all time is because of the offensive line he ran behind. The uncertainty of Fournette's touch volume will make it hard to start him with confidence throughout the season, so a late-sixth-round ADP seems steep. The Ravens view Gus Edwards and Dobbins as co-starters who are both vital cogs, and the front office rewarded Edwards with a new contract supporting his role. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. However, with Smith out of town, gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick now under center, and sophomore running back Antonio Gibson expected to step up, McKissic isnt someone that will have much value in most fantasy leagues. Now, these guys are treated with all the respect of disposable diapers. Got the exact same number of carries as Williams. Only he and Jim brown had a full career average of 5.0 ypc lifetime. Henry is one of my favorite players in the league, but there are preferable first-round picks for me in 2021. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Andrew Davenport: Fantasy managers are drafting Carter as though he is the unquestioned starter. Williams is extremely talented, but as of now, it looks like this will be a split backfield. His current draft price is almost his upside. Chad Parsons: Cohen is coming off an injury, and Damien Williams is a notable veteran addition to the depth chart. Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) #26. His fantasy value was bolstered late in the year due to an insane usage rate in the passing game, seeing a whopping 8.6 targets per game when Alex Smith started. Pat Fitzmaurice: First, a hat tip: For a guy who was a nonfactor in Purdue's offense for four years and was mostly a special-teamer in his first four NFL seasons, Mostert turned out to be a pretty good running back. His production waned down the stretch in Carolina last year, and when was the last time we cared about an Atlanta running back in fantasy football anyway? You wrote in to criticize me immediately following a 4-0 win against Forest where, for the first time all season, Moyes bowed to enormous pressure and played a back 4, told Declan to actually be . Jason Wood: Jacobs was the only projected Raiders offensive starter to play in the Hall of Fame game, which should be a blaring red flag for how much new head coach Josh McDaniels values Jacobs as a centerpiece. He showed elite promise in his rookie year and followed it up with a top 10 season despite a high ankle sprain limiting his ascension. Jim Brown Jim Brown spent a little less than a decade playing for the Cleveland Browns between 1957 and 1965, but that was enough time to prove he's likely the greatest running back to ever play the game and one of the greatest NFL players of all time. Instead, McKissic is a receiving-centric option where targets will be at a premium considering the competition in Washington, which was not present in the 2020 version with notable wide receiver additions Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, and Dyami Brown. The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus. Ben Cummins: The Raiders offense should be fun this season with the additions of Davante Adams and new head coach, Josh McDaniels. The team added Brian Robinson Jr Jr. on day two of the draft while retaining J.D. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. And ultimately, he was targeted by Miami ahead of an early-round draft pick when he finally hit unrestricted free agency. Even if he receives most of the early-down and passing game work, it still wont be very valuable on a putrid offense. 5. Miami will use a committee as none of the backs on the roster can handle the lead-back role. Raheem Mostert, San Francisco | Consensus Rankings RB31 | Consensus Projections RB35. But when we look closer, The Bus only averages 1,050 rushing yards per year and 7 touchdowns, far from elite stats. Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers | Consensus Rankings RB9 | Consensus Projections RB9. Along with McKissic, Gibson will have to contend with Brian Robinson Jr, a rookie from Alabama. Johnson is the incumbent with the largest contract, and yet he's being downshifted in favor of Mark Ingram II -- who did his best work in Baltimore, where Texans head coach David Culley comes from -- and Phillip Lindsay. Gaskin may be the best receiver of the trio, but Ahmed isn't far behind. Edgerrin James 17. James Robinson, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB28 | Consensus Projections RB29. Gordon is a massive red flag at his ADP. Montgomery hasn't turned a corner in his career arc. He was a reliable pass-protector, and had sure hands. He has good hands, but his route running hurt his opportunities to make clean catches against man-to-man coverage. Barkley is a workhorse. His ADP has not shot up the draft boards as quickly as he propelled into fantasy relevance last year due to the almost non-existent target share he received in the passing game. Unfortunately for him, the team replaced the coaching staff that he impressed and signed veteran Carlos Hyde and drafted Travis Etienne in the first round. We've seen J.D. Lets take a look at the average Jerome Bettis season: 277 carries, 1051 yards, 3.9 YPC, 7 TDs. Chad Parsons: The price has vaulted up on Javonte Williams after a quality rookie season. Jeff Haseley: The Dolphins have a three-headed approach to the running back position this year. This is a major factor in any expectation that Robinson would be fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the early weeks of the season. Yep. But even if he doesnt, this backfield could be a closer split than many think. The addition of James Conner, plus the knowledge that Kyler Murray could steal goal-line carries, also adds a bit of skepticism. Lineup Builder Quick Start, Multi-Lineup Harris has the potential to be this year's Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as he may end up burning us relative to his climbing ADP. Jamaal Williams is a fine receiver, route runner, and red-zone back who will limit Swift's upside to a low-end fantasy RB2, at best. Phil Alexander: Hunt finished last season as the RB10 in PPR scoring, but his cumulative stats were buoyed by a four-game stint as Cleveland's starter when Nick Chubb was out with an MCL sprain. There isnt much to like here. Martin is one of the best running backs of all time because he blended good ability with outstanding durability and versatility. Crimson Tide skill players have been pretty good coming into the NFL recently, and Robinson's early start to camp has been generating buzz. If you're optimistic about the Lions running game, take Williams at a deep discount from Swift's highly aspirational price tag. When I was comparing Bettis stats to the the 3 RBs I mentioned above, I saw that Bettis was highly overrated. Expect a more even split in touches than many are forecasting and potentially for Brown to earn the lead role. Eric Dickerson 8. Swift relied heavily on touchdown production for his fantasy numbers. Nobody should ever try to run like Barry Sanders, because they will never be Barry Sanders. Jeff Haseley: Josh McDaniels' history of using multiple running backs in his offense is enough to be concerned about Josh Jacobs not having a full-time role as the lead back for the Raiders. David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB20. most overrated running backs of all time. Jeff Bell: Gibson finished fourth in rushing attempts. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings RB15 | Consensus Projections RB13. At times he looked like the future back Detroit has been looking for this century. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. Kudos to James Robinson. There's too much risk to draft him as an ever-week starter. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. Again, these are not the stats of an elite RB. This three-headed committee with a healthy Jones is bad news for Fournette and means he is way overvalued at current ADP. I am a heretic in that regard. Andrew Davenport: I've had ample opportunities to draft Gaskin and just haven't been able to do it. Jamal Lewis-- RB, 2000-06 There have been seven running backs who have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, and Jamal Lewis is by far the least memorable of the bunch. In Week 16 of the 2011 season, Adrian Peterson tore his ACL and returned as the #1 overall running back in 2012. So should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? Sigmund Bloom: Anthony Lynn basically told us that he will run a committee of Swift and free agent pick Jamaal Williams when he called Williams his "A" back. Perhaps the political and social issues depicted in 'The Grapes of Wrath" were too controversial. His current draft price is almost his upside. Top 10 Most Overrated NFL Players of All Time. Then we have the Taysom Hill conundrum. Before his 2020 campaign, McKissic had never rushed for more than 205 yards in a season. It is also quite possible that Gordon isn't even on the team by the time Week 1 rolls around. The Raiders are sure to recoup as much production as they can on the $8.5 million guarantee they gave Drake on a two-year deal, so this will look closer to a committee than a true lead-back situation. We've seen running backs repeatedly return from severe knee injuries; very seldom do they return the following year and have a memorable fantasy season. The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. Robinson can be successful this year, but he will need luck and to earn the trust of the new coaching staff. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another important key to a successful fantasy team. John Riggins 19. Gaskin is a nice player, but the signings by this staff the last two offseasons say they don't have confidence that Gaskin is their guy. Anthony Amico: The story with Gibson is somewhat similar to that of Jacobs but with a proof of concept already complete. Swift has already broken the injury seal with a groin issue in camp, and Jamaal Williams has already been spoken of highly as a potential 1A to Swift's No. And the Titans got worse this offseason, losing wide receiver Corey Davis, tight end Jonnu Smith, cornerback Adoree' Jackson, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. James Brimacombe: Johnson has been a fantasy hero for us in the past, but now entering Year 7, his best days are behind him. The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. Gaskin is an easy fade at his current price. Simpson 13. The investment in veteran wideout Sammy Watkins and rookies Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace almost cements Dobbinss capped upside in the passing game. There are no guarantees he fits with what Atlanta wants to do or whether he has the endurance to handle a workload after last year's use. A new offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh also adds uncertainty to the situation. Give me Chris Carson or Josh Jacobs in a similar draft range with stronger probabilities to hit as a top-10 option. Derrick Henry, Tennessee | Consensus Rankings RB4 | Consensus Projections RB4. . This likely puts Gibson two injuries away from a full workload, and Robinson is capable of taking away money touches in the redzone as well. Edmonds is a great player who offers a ton of talent on the field to help win games, but he will never be the high volume type of player that we are all desperately looking for each year. David Johnson, Houston | Consensus Rankings RB39 | Consensus Projections RB47. 5. Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. Gibsons problems with fumbles have been a complaint of Ron Rivera, and he has already shown it is not gone in the preseason. The Giants offensive line, playcalling, and quarterback play give us no faith that they can help create fantasy overachievers. most overrated running backs of all time. Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your Jason Wood: Williams has the talent to be a top-10 fantasy back for years. Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your This was largely in line with his previous year's 10.7 per game which allowed him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. Brown has more power and better acceleration and change-of-direction quickness than Gaskin, who is the better receiver. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback is going to gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. And was brought back by a new staff that keeps saying he will be a significant part of the offense. Here is the player who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. Phil Alexander: The epic stretch-run that led Montgomery to an RB4 finish in 2020 came with Tarik Cohen sidelined and against the defenses of Green Bay, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville, respectively. But then he missed a game, the Bears had a bye, and he finished at a torrid pace of 25.7 points per game as the overall RB1 from Weeks 12 to 17. But he's 29, he's undersized, he had a hard time staying healthy last year, he adds little as a pass catcher, and the San Francisco backfield is awfully crowded now. David Johnson 's fantasy fortunes have been a roller coaster ride over the past three seasons. He was used more as a receiver than anything. Chad Parsons: It's a crowded Jets depth chart, and assuming Carter rises to the top of a collection of similar profiles is overstated with his draft valuation. Chad Parsons: McKissic is priced reasonably with an implied drop in targets. The Ravens have had the #1 rushing offense in the league for the last two years straight but have finished 31st overall in total running back targets in that same time span. Ryan Hester: Chubb shares his backfield with a very talented player in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt is the one who gets the lions share of the passing game work. Dillon is maturing as a receiver and might be used in that facet of the game despite his size profile suggesting hes a bruiser. Gaskin may be the top option for now, but that could change with a strong outing from veteran Malcolm Brown or Salvon Ahmed. Gibson has also been struggling with fumbles in training camp, which have drawn the ire of the Commanders coaching staff. The role we envisioned for Johnson is already in question. That has shown to be largely untrue so far in camp as Williams and Gordon have been splitting first-team reps nearly 50-50 until Gordon has missed time with a foot injury. It looked like Williams would consolidate the lead role in the offseason. The Commanders made it a priority of theirs to bring back J.D. Gibson plays on a bad offense, has rushing competition from Robinson, and receiving competition from McKissic. Adrian Peterson 10. The final reason why Jerome Bettis is the most overrated RB of all time is because of the offensive line he ran behind. Though volume is important in fantasy football, Harris could struggle behind his offensive line and not garner an elite share of red zone touches. The Brazilian won the Ballon d'Or in 2005 and has been inducted into the Milan hall of fame for his impact between 2008 and 2011 before heading back to his homeland. Jacobs is not the alpha; he's one of many in the Vegas backfield. For both Cleveland backs to be values, the team would have to produce vintage New Orleans-level production for its backs. Gaskin has missed long periods through injury in his first two seasons in the league. At cost, D'Andre Swift and others are better combinations of floor and ceiling. That number of targets limited his ceiling, and he was barely a low-end RB2. His ADP has been climbing recently, and while his price says drafters are aware of the easy schedule down the stretch, he's still being overvalued at his current price. Anthony Amico: The new regime for the Raiders is not particularly reassuring of Jacobs' role with the team. In 2019, the Lions tried to steal him away with a restricted free agent offer. He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. If he is still on the opening day roster, Gordon's workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. McKissic. He also has a new coaching staff, a new play-caller, and a new system to learn. Andy Hicks: If people are using a fourth or fifth-round pick on Myles Gaskin, they will end up disappointed. Jalen Hurts will inevitably take away carries and goal-line rushes from the backfield, capping any true remaining upside Sanders may have been clinging to. Even last year, as the Panthers starter, he averaged just 3.9 yards-per-carry. Most Overrated QB: Tom Brady 1 of 6 There is no upside with drafting Gaskin this high. But after he sat a game due to injury, the Bears' lead runner came out hot after their bye, and he finished at a torrid pace of 25.7 points per game as the overall RB1 from Weeks 12 to 17. Some running backs, such as Chris Johnson this year, are a full 2.0 YPC over their offensive lines ADY. Even the best backs need help, and Harris is less likely to have consistent holes to run through than any of the backs going around him. He made general managers look like geniuses with more than 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns in 2016. That is not the stat line of an elite RB at all. Drew Davenport: The memories of Johnson dominating in Arizona are still following him into this offseason. The Top Ten 1 David Beckham David Robert Joseph Beckham is (born 2 May 1975) is an English former professional footballer, the current president & co-owner of Inter Miami CF and co-owner of Salford City.. Ricky Watters 20. Victoria Geary: Sanders has talent and breakaway ability, but he may not garner a large enough workload to be worth his ADP this season. For both Cleveland backs to be values, the team would have to produce vintage New Orleans-level production for its backs, or one of them would have to get injured to allow the other to see an increased workload. When Melvin Gordon III re-signed, many dismissed him as purely a backup player. Matt Waldman: Many of my peers at Footballguys are worshippers of draft capital as a predictor of talent. Scoring at least once in 9 games (16 gms total) yields a 56% chance of a score in each game. He's as gifted a receiver as he is a runner, which allows him to have huge games regardless of game script. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Is he more talented than Melvin Gordon III at this point in their respective careers? Byars is the only running back in modern NFL history taken in the first 10 picks of the draft who had at least 800 career carries and a per-carry average of 3.6 yards or worse. Its a knock on his offensive line. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. I'm out. Chad Parsons: Malcolm Brown looks, at a minimum, like a strong 1B option but did get the start and most of the snaps with Tua Tagovailoa with the first team in the initial preseason game. But I do not believe The Bus should be in the list of the top 40 RBs of all time. However, James Robinson is a better runner than Etienne at this point.